I enjoyed listening to this conversation with Felicity Thow on the You Matter Podcast. She talks about how she missed an achilles tendon rupture in one of her patients, and the shame she felt when she found out she had been wrong. It's a good listen for any clinician who feels insecure and doubts themselves (so, everyone then?)
Lovely post. Quite the philosopher you have become Tom. To refer or not refer will be influenced by many factors but perhaps more by the journey from novice to expert and when this is complete the decision becomes less fraught perhaps? However erring on the side of caution must hold sway in the case of CES I believe. Thanks again Tom
Thanks Paul, we have a whole section on erring on the side of caution in the book! I think it must get easier as one gets closer to expertise, although Rob, who is the expert in the partnership, is fond of saying 'it doesn't really get easier, you just get better'.
In 'Thinking in bets', Annie Duke talks about 'resulting', which is the tendency to judge the quality of a decision by it's outcome. You've described exactly she's talking about when you make the point that we're almost always trying to make decisions with imperfect information, which means that there's always a pretty good chance we're going to be wrong. But the goal is to reduce the probability of being wrong in bad ways (e.g. rushing to make a judgement because you want to leave work).
It also reminds me of what Asimov said about the 'relativity of wrong', where he argues that there are degrees of wrongness, and being wrong in one way is not necessarily as bad as being wrong in other ways. See Asimov, I. (1989). The relativity of wrong. The Skeptical Inquirer, 14(1), 35–44.
A very well written , honest post Tom! You communicate very clearly, and it's heart warming to start discussing these issues, rather than how good we are at everything. We actually learn more from 'getting things wrong' In my opinion, not that it's nice if that happens too often....Now that I've been selected for the HCPC audit, I realise I can use your lovely blogs as CPD :) but I enjoy reading them and learn lots from them anyway, cheers, Have a good day, Deborah
This is a fantastic post. Thank you for sharing Tom
Lovely post. Quite the philosopher you have become Tom. To refer or not refer will be influenced by many factors but perhaps more by the journey from novice to expert and when this is complete the decision becomes less fraught perhaps? However erring on the side of caution must hold sway in the case of CES I believe. Thanks again Tom
ATB. Paul
Thanks Paul, we have a whole section on erring on the side of caution in the book! I think it must get easier as one gets closer to expertise, although Rob, who is the expert in the partnership, is fond of saying 'it doesn't really get easier, you just get better'.
In 'Thinking in bets', Annie Duke talks about 'resulting', which is the tendency to judge the quality of a decision by it's outcome. You've described exactly she's talking about when you make the point that we're almost always trying to make decisions with imperfect information, which means that there's always a pretty good chance we're going to be wrong. But the goal is to reduce the probability of being wrong in bad ways (e.g. rushing to make a judgement because you want to leave work).
It also reminds me of what Asimov said about the 'relativity of wrong', where he argues that there are degrees of wrongness, and being wrong in one way is not necessarily as bad as being wrong in other ways. See Asimov, I. (1989). The relativity of wrong. The Skeptical Inquirer, 14(1), 35–44.
I've read Annie Duke's book so I think I probably semi-stole this from her!
Not heard of that perspective from Isaac Asimov, Michael, thanks. Will have a look :)
A very well written , honest post Tom! You communicate very clearly, and it's heart warming to start discussing these issues, rather than how good we are at everything. We actually learn more from 'getting things wrong' In my opinion, not that it's nice if that happens too often....Now that I've been selected for the HCPC audit, I realise I can use your lovely blogs as CPD :) but I enjoy reading them and learn lots from them anyway, cheers, Have a good day, Deborah
Thanks Deborah, I think this is the first time my blogs have been used in the HCPC audit! Maybe they'll see them and subscribe!
Brilliant post, Tom. Thanks for such a thoughtful and honest post that is very clinically relevant. You are doing very meaningful work. Cheers
Thank you Keith!